Market Pulse This Week
Bitcoin endured renewed selling pressure as heavyweight wallets continued to trim exposure, even as small investors stepped in to buy the dip. The backdrop is a volatile macro environment and a sensitive equity backdrop, keeping crypto traders attentive to every price tick.
On-Chain Signals in Focus
Two key on-chain patterns are drawing interest from analysts. Santiment’s Supply Distribution tracker shows wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC lowered their aggregate stake by roughly 0.42% over the past two weeks. In contrast, addresses with balances under 0.01 BTC grew their share by about 0.68% during the same window, suggesting ongoing retail demand despite broad selling pressure.
- Whale segment (10-10k BTC): holdings down ~0.42% in two weeks
- Small investor segment (<0.01 BTC): holdings up ~0.68%
- Supply at loss vs. supply in profit: approximately 11.2 million BTC in loss vs. 8.4 million BTC in profit
A veteran on-chain analyst describe the current split between big players and everyday traders as a defining feature of the late-stage downturn. In crypto chat rooms and research notes, the shorthand 'bitcoin whales dumping: this' has circulated as a quick read on who’s capitulating and who’s waiting on the sidelines.
Market Psychology and Historical Context
The divergence—big holders refraining from accumulation while smaller buyers step in—helps explain why some traders see a potential bottom, even as prices drift lower in the near term. Ali Martinez’s ongoing data work highlights a rare on-chain phase: the share of circulating BTC in loss now exceeds the portion in profit. The latest snapshot shows about 11.2 million BTC underwater versus roughly 8.4 million in the green.
Martinez notes that this pattern has appeared only a handful of times in the past 15 years. The first crossover occurred in September 2011; BTC subsequently bottomed in November of that year and moved into a new bull phase. A second instance emerged in September 2014, lasting into late 2015, before a sizable rally materialized. While history doesn’t guarantee the same outcome, observers say the data adds color to the current setup and helps explain why a true bottom is taking shape more slowly than many expected.
“These crossovers aren’t a crystal ball, but they shift the odds toward a reversal,” Martinez said. “If large holders begin to accumulate again, the probability of a sustained bounce increases, even if the path there remains choppy.”
What This Means for Traders
Market watchers caution that the present signal set favors patience. The on-chain split suggests that demand from retail buyers could be absorbing the selling pressure in the near term, creating a potential trough from which a rally could emerge. Yet until large holders resume net buying, the risk of a drawdown or prolonged consolidation remains real.
For traders, the current environment underscores two priorities: watching primary supply pockets on exchanges and monitoring the activity of major wallets over rising windows of time. The current data do not predict an immediate spike, but they do imply a higher likelihood of a tradable bottom once the big players demonstrate renewed interest.
What to Watch Next
- Shifts in large addresses resuming accumulation and entering fresh buy zones
- Key resistance and support levels that could shape a durable bottom or a quick rebound
- Macro catalysts such as central bank policy, inflation data, and geopolitical headlines that drive risk appetite
Bottom line: bitcoin whales dumping: this remains a central talking point as traders weigh whether a bottom is forming or if more downside lies ahead. The next few weeks will be crucial for confirming whether on-chain signals align with a price recovery or a renewed leg lower.
As July unfolds, volume and volatility are expected to stay elevated. Market participants should stay disciplined, balance risk, and allow on-chain indicators to guide entry and exit points rather than rely on a single signal or rumor.
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