Market Snapshot
In late 2025, a Burns Kiavi survey shows fix-and-flip investor sentiment climbs as overall flipping activity sank to the lowest level in a decade. The Burns Kiavi Fix and Flip Market Index rose to a reading of 62 in the fourth quarter, up from 56 in the third quarter, signaling a shift from caution to cautious optimism, and fix-and-flip investor sentiment climbs even as deal flow slows.
What is fueling the shift
Survey respondents point to several catalysts lifting the mood. Lower mortgage rates, easier access to capital, and signs that home prices may be stabilizing are cited as the main engines behind the turn in sentiment. Kiavi notes these conditions support plans to expand buying activity into 2026.
More than seven in ten flippers say they expect to purchase more properties in 2026 than in 2025, a share that stands out in the four year history of the survey. Only about one in ten expect to buy fewer homes.
Sales outlook and regional vibes
Looking ahead six months, 42 percent of flippers expect good sales conditions, the strongest reading since early 2022. Only 9 percent foresee poor sales, the lowest level in two years. Respondents across regions express more optimism than pessimism about sales activity for the next half year.
Activity backdrop and margins
The improvement in sentiment sits in contrast with a challenging market. Flipped home sales totaled 37 thousand in the fourth quarter across 103 metro areas, down 9.2 percent year over year and the smallest quarterly tally since mid 2015. The margin picture remains tight as more than 40 percent of flippers report concessions or price reductions to close deals.
Kiavi notes that competition for deals remains uneven, with a smaller share reporting less competition in Q4 than in the prior quarter. The dynamic underscores ongoing pressure on bid and purchase terms even as confidence rises.
What to watch in 2026
The fix-and-flip investor sentiment climbs into 2026 as investors recalibrate risk against rate moves and capital availability. Lenders are watching for shifts in underwriting and new loan products that could speed up closings or alter leverage conditions. Policy makers and market observers will also monitor resale inventory and price stability as a backdrop for deal viability.
Implications for lenders and markets
Borrowers in the fix-and-flip space are likely to see more loan options designed for quick turnarounds and moderate leverage. Banks and specialty lenders are adjusting terms to reflect a scenario in which rates have moved lower on the curve but price gains remain modest. The sentiment climb does not erase market fragility, but it does signal a readiness to deploy capital when a favorable set of conditions aligns.
Bottom line
As 2025 closes, fix-and-flip investor sentiment climbs while activity declines. The divergence points to a market that can respond to rate changes and capital flows, but still faces headwinds from economic uncertainty and rising resale inventories. For lenders and investors, the next steps hinge on access to capital, the speed of closings, and the durability of price stability in the months ahead.
Discussion